Mark Driscoll's Scottsdale Church to Launch August 7

Although a group of people has been meeting in Scottsdale, AZ for several weeks, the official launch of Mark Driscoll’s The Trinity Church has been slated (“penciled in”) for August 7, 2016.
According to this video (click through to watch), the church still has to get some design elements in place. The plans sound pretty ambitious. It is not clear that the building isn’t viewed as temporary. The building’s “mid-century modern” style figures prominently in the “groovy” church. His launch announcement is a 7:30 into the clip.
DriscollBuilding
In addition to the video, here is what Driscoll says about the launch (written message accompanying the video):

We are in our core launch team phase gearing up for our public opening this fall around the time that school begins. Right now, we have a family style Bible study with the kids present every Sunday at 9:30 am. If you are interested in our church launch, you are welcome to join us. This week Pastor Mark continues his series in 1 John: The Father Heart of God. We will be in 1 John 4:1-6 if you want to read ahead.
Thank you, thank you, thank you to all that have been helping at our work parties. You have put in over 1000 hours helping us prepare our building for the public launch. We ave enjoyed meeting and working alongside some wonderful hard working people.
This weekend in observance of Memorial day we will not be having a work party on Saturday or Sunday after the Bible study. Lets take a much needed break and also take some time to pray for our military men and women and their families as well as veterans. We appreciate your service and want to honor you.If you attend the Bible study this Sunday we want to give you a gift.
After the Bible study this Sunday we will have an “Ice Cream Sunday” with lots of toppings and bouncy houses blown up for the kids.
In the next month or so, we hope to have our kids ministry building ready to start childrens ministry in the “backyard”. After that, our plan is to have the main room that we call the “living room” ready for church services including the worship band and singing as we gear up for two morning church services. For that to happen, we are giving the old room a fresh makeover in keeping with the midcentury modern Brady Bunch vibe. Yes, it’s groovy.
Thank you to everyone who has given of your finances, prayers, and service. It’s amazing to see how much can get done when hard working people pull together for the cause of Jesus Christ!

Maybe The Trinity Church can get these guys back together for the big launch.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddcIunulJi4[/youtube]
 
 
 

Former Ex-Gay Leader Alan Chambers Says Ex-Gay Movement Is Gasping for Air

In a massive report by Mark Potok and available on the Southern Poverty Law Center website, former president of Exodus International Alan Chambers answers a question from Mark Potok about the future of ex-gay ministry. When Exodus was open for business, it was the largest organization dedicated to sexual reorientation.
Potok’s question is followed by Chambers’ answer.

What do you feel is the future of the ex-gay movement here and abroad?
I honestly believe it is gasping for air. I don’t believe there will ever again be an organization with the size or scope of Exodus International.
My hope is, as I stated very clearly during my closing speech at the Exodus conference in 2013, that every ministry focused on changing orientation will close. I do not believe the ministries or churches that seek to serve people who choose to be celibate are a danger unless they place conditions or qualifications on God’s love.
There will never be a consensus on science or Scripture or politics or much of anything for that matter, but we can seek to unite around the gospel of grace and love and peace. That is a life changing and revolutionary paradigm.

I can reveal that I had an informal role by providing information to the SPLC attorneys in the JONAH case. I know that makes me a heretic in the minds of some on the religious right. I also shopped at Target last night.
The problem is not with people following their religious beliefs about sexual behavior, even if it means celibacy from homosexuality. The problem is the misguided, discredited belief that parental failings cause homosexuality and the resultant “therapies” which follow from such beliefs. If you have the stomach to read through Potok’s report, you will read some bizarre things done in the name of sexual reorientation. You can also read this post for a brief account.
For all my posts on reparative therapy (get a beverage and some snacks), click here.

Information and Misinformation on Gender Dysphoria from Wallbuilders and the American College of Pediatricians, Part One

Tuesday on Wallbuilders Live, Dr. Michelle Cretella represented tiny pediatric breakaway group the American College of Pediatricians. She briefly discussed the organization’s position paper on responding to gender identity issues. In doing so, she said something which caught my irony sensor. It also occurred to me, as it repeatedly has in the discussion of gender dysphoria, how difficult it is to avoid taking extreme positions.
Listen to her response to a question from host Rick Green about how much harm gender dysphoria is causing.

I want to address two claims that came up in this segment. In this post, I address the claim that 80% of gender dysphoric children will accept their biological sex with therapy. In a future post, I will write about the claim about suicide rates.
Cretella says:

They’re [advocates for transgender children] cooperating with, at least, mental confusion.  You know, initially, we know that there is psychiatric literature that shows if you work with these children one on one and with their families, the vast majority, over 80% will come to accept their biological sex after puberty before adulthood. So yes, to put these children to reaffirm their confused thinking, to put them on puberty blockers, and then cross-sex hormones to make them quote unquote the other gender, you are permanently sterilizing children. It’s insanity.

Cretella is correct that persistence rates are low (gender dysphoria continuing into adulthood) among gender dysphoric children, but this is not the case with adolescents who remain gender dysphoric or those who experience it with an adolescent onset. In their paper, ACP uses the American Psychiatric Association’s DSM-V as an authority. The section of the DSM-V cited by ACP supports the claim about persistence but does not fully support Cretella’s claim about the role of therapy.

Rates of persistence of gender dysphoria from childhood into adolescence or adulthood vary. In natal males, persistence has ranged from 2.2% to 30%. In natal females, persistence has ranged from 12% to 50%. Persistence of gender dysphoria is modestly correlated with dimensional measures of severity ascertained at the time of a childhood baseline assessment. In one sample of natal males, lower socioeconomic background was also modestly correlated with persistence. It is unclear if particular therapeutic approaches to gender dysphoria in children are related to rates of long-term persistence. Extant follow-up samples consisted of children receiving no formal therapeutic intervention or receiving therapeutic interventions of various types, ranging from active efforts to reduce gender dysphoria to a more neutral, “watchful waiting” approach. It is unclear if children “encouraged” or supported to live socially in the desired gender will show higher rates of persistence, since such children have not yet been followed longitudinally in a systematic manner. For both natal male and female children showing persistence, almost all are sexually attracted to individuals of their natal sex. For natal male children whose gender dysphoria does not persist, the majority are androphilic (sexually attracted to males) and often self-identify as gay or homosexual (ranging from 63% to 100%). In natal female children whose gender dysphoria does not persist, the percentage who are gynephilic (sexually attracted to females) and self-identify as lesbian is lower (ranging from 32% to 50%). (APA, DSM-V, p. 455)

To the DSM-V, I can add the description of persistence developed by the World Professional Association for Transgender Health (WPATH) in their standards of care.

An important difference between gender dysphoric children and adolescents is in the proportion for whom dysphoria persists into adulthood. Gender dysphoria during childhood does not inevitably continue into adulthood.V Rather, in follow-up studies of prepubertal children (mainly boys) who were referred to clinics for assessment of gender dysphoria, the dysphoria persisted into adulthood for only 6–23% of children (Cohen-Kettenis, 2001; Zucker & Bradley, 1995). Boys in these studies were more likely to identify as gay in adulthood than as transgender (Green, 1987; Money & Russo, 1979; Zucker & Bradley, 1995; Zuger, 1984). Newer studies, also including girls, showed a 12–27% persistence rate of gender dysphoria into adulthood (Drummond, Bradley, Peterson-Badali, & Zucker, 2008; Wallien & Cohen-Kettenis, 2008).
In contrast, the persistence of gender dysphoria into adulthood appears to be much higher for adolescents. No formal prospective studies exist. However, in a follow-up study of 70 adolescents who were diagnosed with gender dysphoria and given puberty-suppressing hormones, all continued with actual sex reassignment, beginning with feminizing/masculinizing hormone therapy (de Vries, Steensma, Doreleijers, & Cohen-Kettenis, 2010).
Another difference between gender dysphoric children and adolescents is in the sex ratios for each age group. In clinically referred, gender dysphoric children under age 12, the male/female ratio ranges from 6:1 to 3:1 (Zucker, 2004). In clinically referred, gender dysphoric adolescents older than age 12, the male/female ratio is close to 1:1 (Cohen-Kettenis & Pfäfflin, 2003). (WPATH, p. 11).

The irony of Cretella’s confidence in psychiatric intervention relates to the expulsion from ACP membership of George Rekers who was infamous for his own personal decline and his discredited treatment approach to what was then called gender identity disorder. In fact, we don’t know the role, if any, therapy plays in influencing the current persistence rates. While there is reason to think parental permission to transition in childhood might increase the persistence rates, there isn’t sufficient research to say for sure.
After listening to Cretella and reading the ACP paper, I wonder what the ACP recommends for the 10-20% of people with gender dysphoria persisting into the late teens. Do they favor reassignment for those persons? They focus on the data which make their point but don’t seem to have an answer for the rest of the people involved.
Another problem with ACP’s confidence in psychiatric interventions for gender dysphoria is that they also oppose a frequent end point in the trajectory of many gender dysphoric children: homosexuality (see image at the end of the post). One of the reasons George Rekers tried to re-orient gender dysphoria was to prevent homosexuality. Furthermore, one of the prime objectives of reparative therapists like Joseph Nicolosi is to prevent homosexuality via the alteration of parenting behaviors toward gender nonconforming children. ACP should stop pretending to sympathize with gender dysphoric children when they also write letters to school personnel promoting reparative change therapy for gay people.
Summary
Cretella is right that studies of gender dysphoric children (mostly with boys) find low rates of persistence of gender dysphoria into adulthood. However, she should have distinguished between prepubescent children and teens. The outcomes for these two groups do not appear to be the same. No doubt her listeners will not make that distinction.
Cretella was wrong to invoke psychiatric treatment as the reason for low persistence rates. If anything, some treatments have been shown to be harmful in some cases while others may not be harmful but may not cause a reduction in gender dysphoria. From her presentation, one could get the impression that advocates for gender dysphoric children know these treatments work but are motivated to undermine the natural family and therefore withhold appropriate medical care. While there is strong disagreement among experts and some advocates might oppose traditional families, it is simply not true that gender dysphoria could be easily treated if only activists would get out of the way.
Another important factor is that the treatment advocated by Cretella and the ACP is an outdated, discredited, psychoanalytically based approach which has not shown success. Even among those in the mainstream who are skeptical of puberty blocking drugs, the treatments advocated by ACP are rejected.
Gender Dysphoria After Childhood
The following image comes from a 2012 study by Devita Singh on gender dysphoric boys. Note the columns titled “sexual orientation in fantasy” and “sexual orientation in behavior.” By far, the most common end point for gender dysphoric children across studies is some level of same sex attraction. Gay advocates have in the past confided to me that they are ambivalent about supporting interruption of puberty because such interventions may interfere with a natural homosexual outcome. Please see this common sense article by Michael Bailey and Eric Vilain on the dilemma many parents of gender dysphoric children face.
Singh table

David Barton Inflates Numbers for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Women

Yesterday, David Barton’s Wallbuilders radio program hosted Michelle Cretella, president of the American College of Pediatricians. Barton and his co-host Rick Green once mistakenly called ACP the “leading association” of pediatricians.
Cretella was on the program to tout the ACP’s stance on transgender issues; I may have more to say about her interview in subsequent posts. However, after the interview, Barton made a claim which he offered as a way to say women should not be in combat. At about 23 minutes into the broadcast, Barton said:

Do you want to go where stats lead you? And she [Cretella] mentioned, what did she say the suicide rates were like 20 times higher in the kids who were being pushed in the transgender direction. And that reminded me of something that a two star General told me not long ago. And he said, when you look at what’s happening right now with women in the military. Women are not allowed in combat, you know they made that decision to change that recently but they’re not in combat units yet. But over the last several years of women’s roles in Afghanistan where they are not allowed in combat, of the women who are back, 90% are suffering from PTSD, only 10% of guys coming back suffering from PTSD. So we got 90% PTSD in women coming back and they’re not in combat. I know! Let’s put them in combat.

After citing a misleading stat from Cretella, he gives his audience one of his own.
I think it is possible that a two-star General who opposes women in combat did tell Barton this. However, now Barton is spreading undocumented and most likely false information to his audience. Some research does find that women experience more frequently than men do, the difference isn’t as great as Barton’s General told him. Here are two VA sources on the matter:

How many women Veterans have PTSD?

Among women Veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, almost 20 of every 100 (or 20%) have been diagnosed with PTSD. We also know the rates of PTSD in women Vietnam Veterans. An important study found that about 27 of every 100 female Vietnam Veterans (or 27%) suffered from PTSD sometime during their postwar lives. To compare, in men who served in Vietnam, about 31 of every 100 (or 31%) developed PTSD in their lifetime. (link)

Twenty percent is a tragedy but it is a long way from 90%.
According to a recent VA source, the rates of PTSD are about the same for military men and women seeking care from the VA.

“In the general population, women are twice as likely as men to develop posttraumatic stress disorder,” noted Dr. Sonja Batten, VA’s Deputy Chief Consultant for Specialty Mental Health. “But among recent returnees seeking care at VA, PTSD rates among men and women are the same. Statistics such as these suggest the need to better understand the role of gender in PTSD, particularly as it may impact our Veterans seeking care.”

On PTSD, Barton hasn’t had a good track record.
It might not be today, but I intend to get back to the claim that the transgender teen suicide rate is 20 times higher than some other teens.

With David Barton as Principal Officer, Non-Profit Mercury One Again Gave $100k to Barton’s Wallbuilders For Disaster Relief

Deja vu all over again. As was true in 2013, Mercury One with David Barton as principal officer and one of three board members gave $100k to David Barton’s Wallbuilders non-profit. Again in 2014, Barton is listed as Mercury One’s principal officer:
Mercury One 990 2014
And as last year, Barton is one of three board members along with Beck associate Joseph Kerry and Beck’s wife Tania.
Mercury One 990 Board 2014
This year Barton got a 4% raise:
mercury one 990 Wallbuilders 2014
See last year’s post for the possible problems with this.
Last year the funds were given to Wallbuilders because of their mission related to history. This year the 990 says “proceeds were used to provide help and resources to individuals affected by unforeseen disasters.” I took a quick Google look for something Wallbuilders did in 2014 or 2015 to help people through “unforeseen disasters” (other than Donald Trump, what disasters are foreseen?) and I couldn’t figure out what Wallbuilders did to help people with disasters (do bad history lessons count?).
Mr. Barton or Rick Green, if your catching up on your Throckmorton blog reading, could you do a Wallbuilders’ program where you outline how Wallbuilders spent over $100k on disaster relief?