This afternoon I made predictions regarding the election and it appears that I got it about right.
At this point, some states are still too close too call but it appears that the electoral math will not work out for Romney.
The discussion about what went wrong has already started. I think the GOP has significant problems which will be analyzed and spun.
Here’s an ‘unhappy bunny’: http://www.scottlively.net/2012/11/07/in-close-race-evil-beats-stupid/
Time to call in the shrinks?
If you are right about the Catholic Church, SGM, it didn’t work too well: on balance, the Catholics went for Obama (though this might be in part because many Catholics are also Hispanics). Protestants went on balance for Romney, and ‘other (e.g. Pentecostal) Christians’ were evenly split.
I’m just happy that FL is still undecided and no one cares 🙂
To be clear, I don’t think Obama is blameless in this situation either. He should have shown more leadership and pushed on the House (and Senate) to get more done. And now that he doesn’t have to spend 2 years of his 4 year term worrying about re-election I’m hoping that is what he does.
In other election news, the 4 ballot measures dealing with same-sex marriage went in favor of it. 3 states voted to allow it, and 1 (MN) rejected a constitutional measure to deny same-sex marriage (although there is a law in MN banning it).
Here’s the BBC’s take on the foreign policy front: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-20233941
I think Mitt just sold me a used car.
I am in favor of Government paid electioneering. Get all this private money out of politics. Come up with a fair system of if you can get xx number of signatures on your nomination papers you get a set amount from the Govt to spend on your campaign.
My other point, in all my growing up years I never once heard a sermon preached from the pulpit about elections. Never! Now it seems like most of the churches are getting involved in politics, and I think the most flagrant abusers are the Catholic Church and the Southern Baptists. The REALLY went after the gays and made sure to tell their congregants to VOTE for their Christian Faith. When I grew up we prayed for our country in church we NEVER prayed about elections. I clearly remember praying during times of National threats and I faintly remeber praying AFTER elections to give our new leaders heavenly guidance. Churches weren’t partisan back in the old days. This religiously lead attack on civil rights for sexual minorities has left a bitter pill in my mouth. Unless it is taking my parents to their church, after this vicious attack by the churches against sexual minorities, it will be a long long long time before I ever voluntarily step foot in a church again.
@ Ken : Fair point. In a way, he was too ‘nice’ (though there were moments in the campaign when he ‘made up for it’ – moments that might even have been helpful, giving people the feeling that Obama II will have a little more ‘bite’ to him).
@ Jim : Yes, I think that Romney would have had a better chance if he had been able to be more consistently the relative moderate that he is. Generally, I personally prefer the centre / centre-left approach, but having (at least) two credible parties is vital for democracy.
@ Warren
My prediction was the same as yours, except on IA and CO. (Of course, I was always going to be wrong on IA … silly me.)
VA was the one we both got wrong. The VA result is perhaps indicative of the ‘demographic shift’ that will shape US elections for years to come.
But FL is still in play for President, I see. That would make his tally 332.
It looks like he will win the popular vote by nearly 2%, so my ‘Rasmussen+2’ theory was not far off the mark.
I find it rather surprising that Indiana went 54-44 for Romney and yet elected a Democrat to the Senate. Even the governors race was closer than the presidential one, though it still went to the arch-conservative, Pence.
Look for Karl Rove to analyze the election to death for the Republicans. I guess he is still hoping against hope that Romney gets Ohio. I wonder how Nate Silver’s predictions shook out.
Victoria Jackson? @vicjackshow
I can’t stop crying. America died.
Richard Willmer says:
November 7, 2012 at 8:52 am
The VP can only cast a vote in the Senate if there is a tie, so Biden really won’t matter.
Hopefully, now the House will actually start working/compromising with Obama instead of just saying “No”.
It seems there is a very substantial absentee vote in Florida.
Here’s an ‘unhappy bunny’: http://www.scottlively.net/2012/11/07/in-close-race-evil-beats-stupid/
Time to call in the shrinks?
If you are right about the Catholic Church, SGM, it didn’t work too well: on balance, the Catholics went for Obama (though this might be in part because many Catholics are also Hispanics). Protestants went on balance for Romney, and ‘other (e.g. Pentecostal) Christians’ were evenly split.
I am in favor of Government paid electioneering. Get all this private money out of politics. Come up with a fair system of if you can get xx number of signatures on your nomination papers you get a set amount from the Govt to spend on your campaign.
My other point, in all my growing up years I never once heard a sermon preached from the pulpit about elections. Never! Now it seems like most of the churches are getting involved in politics, and I think the most flagrant abusers are the Catholic Church and the Southern Baptists. The REALLY went after the gays and made sure to tell their congregants to VOTE for their Christian Faith. When I grew up we prayed for our country in church we NEVER prayed about elections. I clearly remember praying during times of National threats and I faintly remeber praying AFTER elections to give our new leaders heavenly guidance. Churches weren’t partisan back in the old days. This religiously lead attack on civil rights for sexual minorities has left a bitter pill in my mouth. Unless it is taking my parents to their church, after this vicious attack by the churches against sexual minorities, it will be a long long long time before I ever voluntarily step foot in a church again.
It would be great if these extremists ‘went their own way’, if only because we would then see how much support they really have (and I suspect, and hope, it is rather less than all the noise – these folk are a noisy bunch – might suggest).
A ‘renewed’ GOP could then provide a genuine ‘common sense’ counterpoint to the Democratic Party, and this would be good for democracy. (I was pleased that Obama won – like about 75% of western Europeans, I think he has much going for him – but it’s always healthy to have a credible opposition that can genuinely compete with the governing party for the centre ground.)
It would be great if these extremists ‘went their own way’, if only because we would then see how much support they really have (and I suspect, and hope, it is rather less than all the noise – these folk are a noisy bunch – might suggest).
A ‘renewed’ GOP could then provide a genuine ‘common sense’ counterpoint to the Democratic Party, and this would be good for democracy. (I was pleased that Obama won – like about 75% of western Europeans, I think he has much going for him – but it’s always healthy to have a credible opposition that can genuinely compete with the governing party for the centre ground.)
@Jim…. according to Glen Beck he wants to take his Teavangelical party out of the Republicans and form there own party. One woman on the blaze asked him how that would help them any more effective than the Peace party that Roseanne Barr headed this election.
@ Ken : Fair point. In a way, he was too ‘nice’ (though there were moments in the campaign when he ‘made up for it’ – moments that might even have been helpful, giving people the feeling that Obama II will have a little more ‘bite’ to him).
@ Jim : Yes, I think that Romney would have had a better chance if he had been able to be more consistently the relative moderate that he is. Generally, I personally prefer the centre / centre-left approach, but having (at least) two credible parties is vital for democracy.
Unless the Republican Party ditches the hateful Religious Right it will never rise again.
@Jim…. according to Glen Beck he wants to take his Teavangelical party out of the Republicans and form there own party. One woman on the blaze asked him how that would help them any more effective than the Peace party that Roseanne Barr headed this election.
To be clear, I don’t think Obama is blameless in this situation either. He should have shown more leadership and pushed on the House (and Senate) to get more done. And now that he doesn’t have to spend 2 years of his 4 year term worrying about re-election I’m hoping that is what he does.
In other election news, the 4 ballot measures dealing with same-sex marriage went in favor of it. 3 states voted to allow it, and 1 (MN) rejected a constitutional measure to deny same-sex marriage (although there is a law in MN banning it).
I did know that actually, Ken. I was just trying to be clear about the numbers.
I agree that we should all hope for a sensible ‘modus operandi’ on the part of the House. The ‘fiscal cliff’ isn’t something for only Americans to worry about (“when America sneezes …”), and you can bet your shirt who would get the blame over here … and it wouldn’t be the President!
Unless the Republican Party ditches the hateful Religious Right it will never rise again.
Richard Willmer says:
November 7, 2012 at 8:52 am
The VP can only cast a vote in the Senate if there is a tie, so Biden really won’t matter.
Hopefully, now the House will actually start working/compromising with Obama instead of just saying “No”.
Good point, Ken! American democracy is all the better for this lack of interest!
It looks as if the Democrats could have as many as 55 (not including the VP) in their Senate Caucus – somewhat above expectation. Tester looks to be ahead in MT, and Heitkamp in ND. This should help to ease the ‘gridlock’. The Republicans in the House are going to have to handle themselves with great care, or they could be cast as the political ‘villains’ of the next two years.
It seems there is a very substantial absentee vote in Florida.
Indiana is a weird state. They went for Obama in ’08, enjoyed four years of relative prosperity thanks to the stimulus bill and other government programs but is still an inherently conservative state. I think the only reason Donelly won is because Mourdock is a complete fool. Even still he managed to get 46 per cent of the vote.
I’m just happy that FL is still undecided and no one cares 🙂
I did know that actually, Ken. I was just trying to be clear about the numbers.
I agree that we should all hope for a sensible ‘modus operandi’ on the part of the House. The ‘fiscal cliff’ isn’t something for only Americans to worry about (“when America sneezes …”), and you can bet your shirt who would get the blame over here … and it wouldn’t be the President!
Good point, Ken! American democracy is all the better for this lack of interest!
It looks as if the Democrats could have as many as 55 (not including the VP) in their Senate Caucus – somewhat above expectation. Tester looks to be ahead in MT, and Heitkamp in ND. This should help to ease the ‘gridlock’. The Republicans in the House are going to have to handle themselves with great care, or they could be cast as the political ‘villains’ of the next two years.
@ Warren
My prediction was the same as yours, except on IA and CO. (Of course, I was always going to be wrong on IA … silly me.)
VA was the one we both got wrong. The VA result is perhaps indicative of the ‘demographic shift’ that will shape US elections for years to come.
But FL is still in play for President, I see. That would make his tally 332.
It looks like he will win the popular vote by nearly 2%, so my ‘Rasmussen+2’ theory was not far off the mark.
Indiana is a weird state. They went for Obama in ’08, enjoyed four years of relative prosperity thanks to the stimulus bill and other government programs but is still an inherently conservative state. I think the only reason Donelly won is because Mourdock is a complete fool. Even still he managed to get 46 per cent of the vote.
Here’s the BBC’s take on the foreign policy front: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-20233941
Good.
I think Mitt just sold me a used car.
Victoria Jackson? @vicjackshow
I can’t stop crying. America died.
I find it rather surprising that Indiana went 54-44 for Romney and yet elected a Democrat to the Senate. Even the governors race was closer than the presidential one, though it still went to the arch-conservative, Pence.
Look for Karl Rove to analyze the election to death for the Republicans. I guess he is still hoping against hope that Romney gets Ohio. I wonder how Nate Silver’s predictions shook out.
Good.