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	<title>Warren Throckmorton&#187; Research news</title>
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	<link>http://wthrockmorton.com</link>
	<description>A College Psychology Professor&#039;s Observations About Public Policy, Mental Health, Sexual Identity, and Religious Issues</description>
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		<title>The Evangelical Blackout of Sexual Orientation Research, Part 2</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/12/15/the-evangelical-blackout-of-sexual-orientation-research-part-2/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/12/15/the-evangelical-blackout-of-sexual-orientation-research-part-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2011 14:20:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NARTH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Professional issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Religion and sexuality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reparative therapy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chris rosik]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[evangelical]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lesbian parenting]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=10679</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last week, I commented on what I see as an evangelical blackout of sexual orientation research by Christian media and organizations. While I stand by that viewpoint, the situation is actually worse than a blackout. The blackout is selective; some new research is reported. However, the studies reported and the way they are reported seem [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week, I commented on what I see as an <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/12/07/the-evangelical-blackout-of-research-on-sexual-orientation/" target="_blank">evangelical blackout</a> of sexual orientation research by Christian media and organizations. While I stand by that viewpoint, the situation is actually worse than a blackout. The blackout is selective; some new research is reported. However, the studies reported and the way they are reported seem designed to create a slanted picture.</p>
<p>A case in point. Currently, on the NARTH (National Association for the Research and Therapy of Homosexuality) website, scientific advisory board member, <a href="http://narth.com/2011/12/new-study-daughters-of-lesbian-parents-more-likely-to-engage-in-same-sex-behavior-and-identify-as-bisexual/" target="_blank">Chris Rosik, reviews</a> a new report from Gartrell, Bos and Goldeberg about lesbian parenting recently published in the <em>Archives of Sexual Behavior</em>. The headline for the review is</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>New Study: Daughters of Lesbian Parents More Likely to Engage in Same-Sex Behavior and Identify as Bisexual</strong></p></blockquote>
<p>This is definitely a new study. The blackout is not total, but as I will demonstrate, it is selective. NARTH ignores the hard science involved in the brain scan studies but finds one aspect of a small longitudinal study of lesbian parenting to report. Now that you read the headline, read what Rosik says about how the study can be used.</p>
<blockquote><p>While this small study is valuable as a starting point for longitudinal research into same-sex parenting, professionals and policy makers should be very wary of making any meaningful conclusions from its findings.  Serious methodological limitations also argue against making sweeping generalizations.  As is the case for the vast majority of studies in this area, the sample size is quite small, constituting only 78 adolescents.  The sample of lesbian parents is self-selected and appears to be different from the general population on important demographics such as socioeconomic status and educational attainment.  Demand characteristics (i.e., external influences such as political goals that might motivate study participants to respond in a particular manner) are not considered or assessed by the study’s authors with respect to the lesbian mothers or their adolescent children.</p></blockquote>
<p>And then&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>Certainly the Gatrell, et al. (2011) study provides some intriguing though entirely non-generalizable findings that are consistent with the hypothesis that non-heterosexual experiences and identities are more common among daughters of lesbian families than those raised in heterosexual families.</p></blockquote>
<p>First, Rosik reports, via headline, the finding that would be of concern to religious conservatives but then in the article says one cannot make such generalizations. If one cannot generalize beyond the sample, then why report the finding as if one could?</p>
<p>The study also found that no children were abused in lesbian homes. This finding is in contrast to heterosexual families where abuse is reported (26% of teens report physical abuse by a parent or caregiver according to national surveys). Since NARTH is commonly represented in cases against same-sex parenting, and such information is relevant to their membership, why was that fact not a part of the headline?</p>
<p>Another interesting finding in the study was that boys were less likely to have been sexual involved with girls in lesbian families than in straight families. Isn&#8217;t that what abstinence educators want to promote?</p>
<p>My point here is that NARTH leaders do keep an eye out for new research, however, their reporting of them is selective. And then when they choose to review a study, their review is selective.</p>
<p>I have established that NARTH is a key source of information for Christian right organizations. When some relevant studies are ignored, and others are selectively reported, it seems clear to me evangelicals are poorly served by the organizations they count on for information.</p>
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		<title>University of Utah professor: NARTH article &#8220;unscientific and irresponsible&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/12/06/university-of-utah-professor-narth-article-irresponsible-and-unscientific/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/12/06/university-of-utah-professor-narth-article-irresponsible-and-unscientific/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Dec 2011 15:17:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NARTH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[christopher rosik]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[david huebner]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=10638</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Does engaging in same-sex behavior cause people to become gay? NARTH Scientific Advisory Board member Chris Rosik posed this question in a recent review of a study on risk behavior among gay and bisexual men. The study, led by David Huebner at the University of Utah found that gay and bisexual men who engage in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does engaging in same-sex behavior cause people to become gay? NARTH Scientific Advisory Board member Chris Rosik posed this question in <a href="http://narth.com/2011/11/study-raises-questions-about-conventional-theories-regarding-sexual-risk-behavior-among-gay-and-bisexual-men/" target="_blank">a recent review of a study</a> on risk behavior among gay and bisexual men. The study, led by David Huebner at the University of Utah found that gay and bisexual men who engage in risky sexual behavior may justify subsequent risky behavior as their attitudes change in response to their actions. After reviewing the study, Rosik extended the study findings to the causes of same-sex orientation:</p>
<blockquote><p>First, if engaging in sexual risk behavior leads to changes in beliefs and attitudes that legitimize such behavior, is it wise to encourage early self-labeling and sexual activity among male adolescents experiencing same-sex attractions? Could participation in early homosexual risk activity such as unprotected (or even protected) anal intercourse lead some adolescent boys down a path of homosexual activity and identity and away from what might have been an eventual heterosexual adjustment?</p></blockquote>
<p>Rosik proposes that adolescent boys might alter the course of their adult sexual orientation from straight to gay by experimenting with same-sex behavior. However, Rosik’s generalization is improper according to study lead author, David Huebner. In an email, Huebner told me:</p>
<blockquote><p>Our study examined how adults&#8217; attitudes about condoms and their perceived peer norms about condoms each relate over time to self-reports of condom use during intercourse with casual sexual partners. Condom use is considered a preventive health behavior, and thus, our results might generalize to other preventive behaviors, such as seat belt use, exercise, smoking cessation, or breast cancer screening. Our study does not, in any way, address the development of sexual orientation during adolescence, or the development of normal, healthy sexuality among gay or straight adolescents. Any attempt to generalize our findings to those topics is unscientific and irresponsible.</p></blockquote>
<p>Huebner’s team researched attitude changes about risk behaviors, not developmental factors in sexual orientation. Furthermore, the findings are not generalizable to the general development of attractions among teens who are attracted to the same sex.</p>
<p>Rosik’s question may seem like harmless speculation to some. However, many on the religious right encourage fear of gay people on the grounds that gays recruit questioning youth who would otherwise be straight. Uganda’s David Bahati justified the draconian Anti-Homosexuality Bill with the claims that gays are recruiting young people. Over the past two years, Bahati has promised to produce evidence of his claims that gays in Uganda systematically recruit kids. To date, he has not produced any such evidence.</p>
<p>Far right pundits in this country raise fears about anti-bullying programs because they might indoctrinate students into homosexuality. Linda Harvey (aka Mission America) yesterday <a href="http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/linda-harvey-claims-gays-are-doing-molesters-cultivation-work-him" target="_blank">said on her radio show</a> that gays cultivate kids for pedophiles.</p>
<p>Only about 25% of <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/10/24/narth-is-not-primarily-composed-of-mental-health-professionals/" target="_blank">NARTH&#8217;s members</a> are clinicians or researchers with professional training or access to the original study. The rest are lay people and culture warriors who look to the NARTH website for accurate information about scientific work. Unfortunately, those readers could easily come away from his review with the perspective that research done by University of Utah researchers supports the recruitment concept of gay development. Although those with a trained or critical eye will catch the improper generalization, I suspect most will not see it. Thus, given the audience of Rosik&#8217;s review, I have to agree with Dr. Huebner and say that Rosik&#8217;s unqualified speculation is &#8220;unscientific and irresponsible.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>First study to refer to ex-gays discredited</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/11/11/first-study-to-refer-to-ex-gays-discredited/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/11/11/first-study-to-refer-to-ex-gays-discredited/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 15:44:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[ex-ex-gay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ex-gay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NARTH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Professional issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reparative therapy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[e. mansell pattison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exodus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gary cooper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[melodyland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[michael bussee]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=10536</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In 2000, I presented a paper at the annual conference of the American Psychological Association outlining studies which referred to ex-gays, i.e., people who rejected gay as an identity for religious reasons. That presentation was part of a larger symposium organized by Mark Yarhouse and Doug Haldeman on religious and GLB issues. In 2002, that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In 2000, I presented a paper at the annual conference of the American Psychological Association outlining studies which referred to ex-gays, i.e., people who rejected gay as an identity for religious reasons. That presentation was part of a larger symposium organized by Mark Yarhouse and Doug Haldeman on religious and GLB issues. In 2002, that paper was published in the APA journal Professional Psychology: Research and Practice.* That was the same year I was given the Freud Award at the NARTH conference. </p>
<p>In that paper, I summarized a study by psychiatrist E. Mansell Pattison and his wife Myrna Loy Pattison, titled &#8220;&#8216;Ex-gays&#8217;: Religiously Mediated Change in Homosexuals.&#8221; The Pattisons interviewed 11 men in the Melodyland church in Anaheim, CA who claimed to have changed from gay to straight. One of those men was frequent commenter here Michael Bussee. Another was Gary Cooper, the man who left that ministry and Exodus with Bussee when they both acknowledged that they had not changed their orientation. In other words, two of the 11 had not changed at all. </p>
<p>Today, on the <a href="http://www.religiondispatches.org/archive/sexandgender/5374/participant_discredits_the_original_ex-gay_study/" target="_blank">Religion Dispatches website</a>, I describe that study in more detail and interview Michael Bussee about his participation. I encourage you to go read it and comment here or there. </p>
<p>The study continues to be used by NARTH as well as other groups to claim sexual reorientation works. The problems with the study provide more evidence that NARTH&#8217;s use of old data (125 year landscape review) is flawed.  </p>
<p>*Throckmorton, W. (2002). Initial empirical and clinical findings concerning the change process for ex-gays. <em>Professional Psychology: Research and Practice</em>, <em>33</em>, 242-248. </p>
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		<title>The Jones and Yarhouse study: What does it mean?</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/10/27/the-jones-and-yarhouse-study-what-does-it-mean/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/10/27/the-jones-and-yarhouse-study-what-does-it-mean/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Oct 2011 15:01:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[ex-ex-gay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ex-gay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exodus International]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mental health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Professional issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual identity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[citizenlink]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mark yarhouse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stanton jones]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=10477</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let me begin by saying that I endorsed the book, Ex-Gays, A Longitudinal Study of Religiously Mediated Change in Sexual Orientation, by Stanton Jones and Mark Yarhouse which contained the first report of their longitudinal study. Since the publication of the book, Jones and Yarhouse have released results of their final follow up, first in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let me begin by saying that I endorsed the book, <em>Ex-Gays, A Longitudinal Study of Religiously Mediated Change in Sexual Orientation</em>, by Stanton Jones and Mark Yarhouse which contained the first report of their longitudinal study. Since the publication of the book, Jones and Yarhouse have released results of their final follow up, <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Jones-and-Yarhouse-Final.pdf">first in 2009</a> at the annual convention of the American Psychological Association, and then most recently in the <em><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/usmt20/current">Journal of Sex and Marital Therapy</a></em>. With the follow up, I believe the study remains an important investigation into the interplay of religion, sexual orientation and personal identity. I give them credit for the perseverance required to explore a topic which is highly controversial and to report their findings in detail.</p>
<p>Since the release of the peer-reviewed article, socially conservative groups have described the study as proof that gays can change orientation. For instance, the American Family Association&#8217;s Bryan Fischer, one of the worst offenders, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/americanfamilyassoc1#p/u/16/WctwlB-fYQo" target="_blank">claims that the study</a> proves gays can change and that they weren&#8217;t born gay. Also, <a href="http://www.citizenlink.com/2011/09/28/study-change-is-possible-for-homosexuals/">Citizenlink</a>, an affiliate of Focus on the Family reported:</p>
<blockquote><p>Of the 98 subjects, more than half were reported as successful; 23 percent reported a complete change in orientation after six years. Also, 20 percent reported giving up the struggle to change.</p></blockquote>
<p>This claim is misleading. Jones and Yarhouse did not report “complete change in orientation.” Instead they cautioned against misinterpreting their findings by saying</p>
<blockquote><p>These results do not prove that categorical change in sexual orientation is possible for everyone or anyone, but rather that meaningful shifts along a continuum that constitute real changes appear possible for some. The results do not prove that no one is harmed by the attempt to change, but rather that the attempt does not appear to be harmful on average or inherently harmful. The authors urge caution in projecting success rates from these findings, as they are likely overly optimistic estimates of anticipated success. Further, it was clear that &#8220;conversion&#8221; to heterosexual adaptation was a complex phenomenon.</p></blockquote>
<p>Regarding the changes reported by their participants, the authors offer two related explanations. One is that some of the participants changed sexual orientation to some degree and the other is that the participants changed their sexual identity. Sexual identity involves placing more emphasis on behavioral conformity to prohibitions on homosexual behavior as a means of self definition. For the Exodus participants, less temptation to engage in homosexual behavior might be taken as a signal that orientation has changed, thus allowing a different attribution about their sexuality than once believed. The authors raise these two possibilities in the abstract for the most recent paper:</p>
<blockquote><p>The authors conducted a quasi-experimental longitudinal study spanning 6–7 years examining attempted religiously mediated sexual orientation change from homosexual orientation to heterosexual orientation. An initial sample was formed of 72 men and 26 women who were involved in a variety of Christian ministries, with measures of sexual attraction, infatuation and fantasy, and composite measures of sexual orientation and psychological distress, administered longitudinally. Evidence from the study suggested that change of homosexual orientation appears possible for some and that psychological distress did not increase on average as a result of the involvement in the change process. The authors explore methodological limitations circumscribing generalizability of the findings and alternative explanations of the findings, such as sexual identity change or adjustment.</p></blockquote>
<p>As I read all of the literature, including my own work, I first want to disagree with the way that Citizenlink characterized the results as “complete change.” That is not at all what Jones and Yarhouse reported. Considering the dichotomy proposed by Jones and Yarhouse &#8212; change in orientation or identity – I lean toward their alternative explanation – “sexual identity change or adjustment.”  However, I believe the discussion of what their results mean needs to be broadened beyond those two possibilities. In addition to considering orientation and identity as important constructs, I believe there are other ways to account for the changes Jones and Yarhouse report which are not sufficiently addressed in their published accounts.  First, I want to make some observations about the study which influence my opinions about what the results mean.</p>
<p>First, and most basically, the Jones and Yarhouse study did not examine in any systematic way the efficacy of reparative therapy or any other kind of psychological therapy as a means of altering sexual orientation. The participants in the study were involved in religiously based support groups which primarily had as a goal to reinforce a traditional moral view of sexuality. Clearly, the participants hoped they would change and engaged in various religious interventions to assist that end. However, the study did not assess the role of professional therapy and cannot legitimately be used to say such therapies work.</p>
<p>Second, there were quite a few dropouts six to seven years into the study. While true of all longitudinal studies, the final percentages being reported should also take into account the distinct possibility that many if not most of the drop outs were not successful in their efforts to change. The study began with 98 participants and ended up with 65 who were followed up for six to seven years. Some reported that they were healed of homosexuality and just didn’t want to participate, while others said they were gay and stopped trying to change. I don’t know for sure what the dropouts mean but the fact that so many failed to complete the study needs to be a part of any discussion.</p>
<p>Third, ratings from men and women were combined. Given the low number of people involved I understand why this was done but the practice may inflate the assessments of change for the group. It has become well accepted that the sexuality of women is more fluid than for men. A few women experiencing large shifts could influence the group averages.<span id="more-10477"></span></p>
<p>Fourth, the nature of the change reported requires examination. Jones and Yarhouse reported that 23% of the participants remaining in the study labeled their experience as “conversion” from a homosexual orientation to a heterosexual one. However, let’s look at how the authors described the starting point for this group of changers on average. On a seven point scale with seven being completely homosexuality, the group averaged a 5.09 rating which Jones and Yarhouse described in their book as “’largely homosexual, but more than incidental heterosexual’ attraction.” At the third assessment of sexual attraction, the authors reported that the rating had dropped to 1.55. This group rated themselves as having moved toward the heterosexual side of the continuum. On the Kinsey scale used to assess the attractions, the average score fell between the “exclusively heterosexual” and “largely heterosexual, but incidental homosexual” ratings. One defensible way of describing the outcome is that the participants went from one end of bisexual spectrum to another. On average, the group rating indicated both heterosexual and homosexual attractions at the beginning, middle and end of the study.</p>
<p>Jones and Yarhouse helpfully supplied descriptions of the change provided by the participants in their book which was completed after about three years into the study. To me, these descriptions describe changes in sexual identity more than categorical changes in sexual orientation. There were five examples given of people in the change group. Two men said they were still attracted to the same sex, one man and one woman described themselves as heterosexual without elaboration and one of the examples in the change category recanted his reports of change and said he was gay.</p>
<p>As noted two participants said they were changed but continued with same-sex attractions. There self-descriptions provide insight into what they mean by change.  One participant said: “I am a heterosexual, yet I continue to suffer from some degree of sexual brokenness an unwanted sexual attraction to men.” Another said, “I would define myself to be primarily heterosexual by definition of who I have sexual activity with, with latent, sporadic homosexual lust. I don’t desire sexual contact as much as I did last year; I think that a vibrant sexual relationship with my wife has contributed to that.”</p>
<p>Whatever else is true, it is hard for me to see these situations as categorical (gay to straight) changes. The changes were certainly perceived to be beneficial but if words have any meaning, these descriptions cannot be considered as a “complete change in orientation.” The participants views of themselves and their behavior have changed but they continue to disclose attraction to the same sex in the way that a bisexual person might do.</p>
<p>These observations lead me to consider other explanations for the study results. For instance, I think bisexuality is a significant conceptual issue for ex-gay studies. People who are generally attracted to both sexes may shift in their self-attributions based on current relationship, and personal beliefs about how they ought to regard themselves. These people may seem to shift within a basically bisexual orientation.</p>
<p>I also think that some men and women (more so women in my view), can develop attractions for specific opposite sex attachments without altering their essential orientation. Some people in mixed orientation marriages report that they remain generally attracted to the same sex but have fallen in love with a person of the opposite sex. The sexual relationship is legitimate and intense but the attraction to the opposite sex partner does not generalize to other members of the opposite sex.</p>
<p>Women seem to have less aversion to cross orientation relationships and behavior. One study of twins found that two-thirds of women would be open to lesbian relationships if no one found out versus one-third of men. Lisa Diamond’s work on sexual fluidity in women raises the possibility that for some fluidity is a dimension of their particular sexual orientation. In other words, some people might be more naturally flexible in their attractions without any interventions. I know people like that. It is possible that some of the changes reported by Exodus participants would have taken place without any intervention. Some studies have reported spontaneous <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2009/09/22/spontaneous-change-compared-to-therapeutically-mediated-change/">changes in attraction</a> without intervention. Without a baseline rate of flexibility (control group), one cannot know what the changes reported by Jones and Yarhouse mean. Looking at the few studies which have examined lifespan shifts, I am skeptical that the 23% change rate reported by Jones and Yarhouse indicates much potency due to religious mediation.</p>
<p>I see nothing in the Jones and Yarhouse study that is inconsistent with seeing the participants as shifting within a bisexual continuum, developing cross orientation relationships and/or demonstrating naturalistic changes. In fact, I think the study supports these explanations more solidly than viewing the changes as categorical shifts in sexual orientation. Furthermore, without a baseline of naturalistic change and separating results by sex, I am not clear what to make of the rate of change.</p>
<p>To me, the study is valuable because it provides a look into the experience of people trying to make sense out of their lives and how they can live with what seems like a contradiction. Some find certain cognitive changes lead to less pressure to engage in behavior they believe to be wrong. Others don’t experience a reduction in such pressure but decide to refrain from acting on those desires. To me, the more interesting aspect of the study is the different ways people engage in self-attribution in response to the givens of their lives.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Additional point: Mark Yarhouse is co-author with me of the <a href="http://www.sitframework.com" target="_blank">Sexual Identity Therapy Framework</a>. I believe it is important to note that change of orientation is not an objective we promote as an aspect of the framework. Popular but accurate accounts of the application of the SIT Framework can be found in a 2009 Wall Street Journal article <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124950491516608883.html" target="_blank">by Stephanie Simon</a> and an article by Mimi Swartz in the New York Times Magazine (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/magazine/therapists-who-help-people-stay-in-the-closet.html?_r=1" target="_blank">June 16, 2011</a>, see especially page 5 to the end).</p>
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		<title>NARTH Report: Suicide attempts increase during sexual orientation change therapy</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/09/26/narth-report-suicide-attempts-increase-during-sexual-orientation-change-therapy/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/09/26/narth-report-suicide-attempts-increase-during-sexual-orientation-change-therapy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Sep 2011 19:25:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NARTH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neil whitehead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shidlo and schroeder]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=10298</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Writing in the second edition of NARTH&#8217;s (National Association for the Research and Therapy of Homosexuality) Journal of Human Sexuality, Neil Whitehead proposed a reanalysis (NARTH summary here) of a paper by Ariel Shidlo and Michael Shroeder on potentially harmful outcomes of sexual orientation change efforts. NARTH&#8217;s headline describing the paper is Sexual Orientation Change Efforts [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Writing in the second edition of NARTH&#8217;s (National Association for the Research and Therapy of Homosexuality) Journal of Human Sexuality, Neil Whitehead proposed a reanalysis (<a href="http://narth.com/2011/08/sexual-orientation-change-efforts-do-not-lead-to-increased-suicide-attempts/" target="_blank">NARTH summary here</a>) of a paper by Ariel Shidlo and Michael Shroeder on potentially harmful outcomes of sexual orientation change efforts. NARTH&#8217;s headline describing the paper is</p>
<blockquote><p>Sexual Orientation Change Efforts Do Not Lead to Increased Suicide Attempts.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/narthwhiteheadarticle.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-10343" title="narthwhiteheadarticle" src="http://wthrockmorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/narthwhiteheadarticle-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="186" height="152" /></a>Contrast NARTH&#8217;s headline with the title of my post. After examining  Whitehead&#8217;s  article, I submit that his analysis supports my title as much or more than it does NARTH&#8217;s claim.</p>
<p> Shidlo and Shroeder wrote the following about suicide attempts in their 2002 report:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote><p>In examining the data, we distinguished between participants who had a history of being suicidal before conversion therapy and those who did not. Twenty-five participants had a history of suicide attempts before conversion therapy, 23 during conversion therapy, and 11 after conversion therapy. We took the subgroup of participants who reported suicide attempts and looked at suicide attempts pre-intervention, during intervention, and post-intervention to see if there was any suggestive pattern. We found that 11 participants had reported suicide attempts since the end of conversion interventions. Of these, only 3 had attempted prior to conversion therapy. Of the 11 participants, 3 had attempted during conversion therapy.</p></blockquote>
<p>In his NARTH paper, Whitehead makes a series of assumptions about the participants in the Shidlo and Schroeder study. I think these are questionable assumptions but for sake of discussion, I will play along. First, he assumes that these suicide attempts occur over a span of 25 years (13 years pre-therapy, two years in therapy and then 10 years post-therapy). He then assumes that the attempts occurred at a constant rate over that span to calculate an expected number of suicide before, during and after therapy. Whitehead then compares his expected attempts with the actual number of attempts as reported by Shidlo and Schroeder. Whitehead summarized his findings as follows:</p>
<blockquote><p>(a) Comparing pre-therapy, therapy, and post-therapy groups, there is overall no significant increase in suicides per unit time.<br />
(b) There is a very clear increase in attempts during therapy.<br />
(c) There is a trend to fewer attempts after therapy.</p></blockquote>
<p>Using his assumptions, Whitehead wrote:</p>
<blockquote><p>Suicide attempts reported before therapy were 25, and those reported during and after therapy combined numbered 34. The expected numbers allowing for the time periods and normalized to the above total are 30.55 and 28.44. The expectation on which this is calculated is that therapy has no effect, either positive or negative.</p></blockquote>
<p>In this analysis, no difference shows up in suicides related to therapy when suicide attempts before therapy are compared with the time period during and after therapy. However, Whitehead does not stop there. About suicide attempts during therapy, he wrote:</p>
<blockquote><p>For attempts before and during therapy, the observed results are 25 and 23, and the calculated expected normalized figures are 42.18 and 5.82. These are very different from the observed, and the chi-square test produces a result of p &lt; 0.001. They are not the same, and therapy has therefore been associated with a several-fold increase in attempts.</p></blockquote>
<p>In other words, there is a very large increase in suicide attempts during therapy. The title of my post is accurate. <em>According to this NARTH report, sexual orientation change &#8220;therapy has therefore been associated with a several-fold increase in attempts.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><span id="more-10298"></span>However, Whitehead is still not finished. He compares his expected suicide attempts during and after therapy with Shidlo and Shroeder&#8217;s data and observes a trend in the direction of therapy being helpful.</p>
<blockquote><p>The observed results of attempts before and after therapy are 25 and 11, and the calculated expected normalized results are 19.68 and 16.30. The result of the calculation is p = 0.075. A statistical result &lt; 0.1 and &gt; 0.05 is usually called a “trend,” in this case to fewer attempts after therapy. However, further inspection of the data shows that this result was quite sensitive to sample size. If only one extra person with no suicide attempts after therapy had been added to the sample, the result would have attained the usual p = 0.05 level of significance, and the conclusion would have been that therapy was associated with a significant diminution of attempts.</p></blockquote>
<p>Many a researcher has wished for that elusive extra subject which, if only the subject had performed as hoped, would lead to a statistically significant result. Whitehead really wants to find that sexual reorientation therapy does not lead to increased post-therapy suicide attempts  and so he predicts that one more subject responding the way he expects would lead to that significant result.</p>
<p>Leaving aside the fact that there is no statistically significant result, NARTH and Whitehead fail to consider another possible explanation for the concocted results. Perhaps, the reason why suicide attempts fell after change therapy is that the clients involved got out of the therapy. Maybe these people found peace with their sexuality in some other way that did not involve trying to change. <em>From this point of view, perhaps people are alive today despite the therapy not because of it.</em></p>
<p>Whitehead then tries to explain why therapy is associated with such a significant increase in suicide attempts.</p>
<blockquote><p>Does this mean that therapy is inherently dangerous? Actually, it reflects the universal pattern seen in all psychotherapy. As demonstrated numerous times (e.g., Erlangsen, Zarit, Tu, &amp; Conwell, 2006; Qin &amp; Nordentoft, 2005; Qin et al., 2006), when psychiatric patients are admitted to a hospital, attempted suicide rates rise to a very high level in the first week after admission. There is usually a secondary peak in suicide attempts the first week after discharge, followed by a strong long-term decrease to well below pre-admission rates (Erlangsen, Zarit, Tu, &amp; Conwell, 2006; Qin &amp; Nordentoft, 2005; Qin et al., 2006). (pp. 164-165).</p></blockquote>
<p>Whitehead claims that this increase in suicide attempts during change therapy is actually &#8220;a predicted pattern,&#8221; explaining that people are more likely to attempt suicide just after they begin therapy. However, this is misleading. The citations Whitehead offers as support for his claim (Erlangsen, Zarit, Tu, &amp; Conwell, 2006; Qin &amp; Nordentoft, 2005; Qin et al., 2006) describe results with elderly patients admitted to psychiatric hospitals. In other words, Whitehead compares suicide attempt rates for people trying to change sexual orientation in out-patient psychotherapy with rates for elderly psychiatric patients admitted to the hospital. Is this a valid generalization?</p>
<p>In my view, the generalization is faulty. Most, if not all, sexual orientation change therapy is provided on an outpatient basis. A better comparison would be to other out-patient treatments. Researchers Bostwick and Pankrantz reported in 2002 (cited in Rudd, et al, 2009):</p>
<blockquote><p>For major depression, 2% receiving outpatient treatment will die by suicide and 9% of patients receiving inpatient treatment will die (Bostwick &amp; Pankrantz, 2001).</p></blockquote>
<p>Mortality is greater for in-patients than for out-patients, as one would expect. On the whole, risk of suicidality is related to severity of mental health condition, with more disabling disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar, major depression) accounting for more suicide attempts. Change therapy clients may or may not have a disabling mental disorder. If they sought therapy to change orientation, the comparison to those seeking treatment for a major mental disorder is questionable.</p>
<p>If, for discussion&#8217;s sake, we look at any reference group to discern the role of therapy in suicide attempts, we find that some studies demonstrate a reduced risk of suicide after initiating outpatient psychotherapy. This chart from a study led by Katalin Szanto in 2003 shows that suicide risk decreases gradually but surely from the week just prior to the beginning of therapy (baseline). <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/whiteheadgraphszanto.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-10306" title="whiteheadgraphszanto" src="http://wthrockmorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/whiteheadgraphszanto.jpg" alt="" width="370" height="257" /></a></p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p>
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<p>Other studies using cognitive-behavioral and dialectic behavior therapy have demonstrated that therapy can reduce suicide risk during therapy. (e.g., work by Marsha Linehan, see reference list).</p>
<p>To summarize, patients admitted to the hospital with more severe diagnoses demonstrate more suicide attempts early in treatment. However, it is questionable that sexual reorientation efforts can be compared to in-patients admissions. In addition, it seems that some therapy approaches reduce risk of suicide. Presumably, therapy fiting the needs of the clients would demonstrate better risk reduction.</p>
<p>Whitehead set out to tell us that sexual orientation change efforts do not lead to more suicide attempts. However, playing by Whitehead&#8217;s rules, the only statistically significant finding is that such attempts increase during such therapy.</p>
<p>Having written many words to demonstrate that Whitehead actually the opposite of what the NARTH website claims, I must return us to reality. For reasons <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2008/12/10/confirmation-bias-narth-and-the-use-of-research/" target="_blank">I have written about before</a>, one cannot make any conclusive statements about reorientation and suicide risk from Shidlo and Schroeder&#8217;s data. In December 2008, NARTH&#8217;s president at the time Julie Hamilton made the claim the Shidlo and Schroeder study showed a reduction of suicide risk associated with sexual reorientation change efforts. At that time, <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2008/12/10/confirmation-bias-narth-and-the-use-of-research/" target="_blank">I critiqued</a> the misuse of  the study, writing that the study was not set up to examine risk of suicide.</p>
<p>NARTH claims to be a scientific organization. However, since 2008, NARTH has been using a study to claim something not possible to claim by virtue of the study design or the reanalysis by Whitehead. Make no mistake about it, the claim that sexual orientation change efforts do not increase suicide attempts is not based on science but on advocacy.</p>
<p>Click the link for the <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Whiteheadreferences.pdf" target="_blank">list of references</a>.</p>
<p>The entire issue of the <a href="http://narth.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/JournalofHumanSexuality_Vol2.pdf" target="_blank">Journal of Human Sexuality is here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Bryan Fischer&#8217;s expert misleads audience on ex-gay therapy</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/07/15/bryan-fischers-expert-misleads-audience-on-ex-gay-therapy/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/07/15/bryan-fischers-expert-misleads-audience-on-ex-gay-therapy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jul 2011 17:54:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Religion and sexuality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[afa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan Fischer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Rampey]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Psychologist Tim Rampey was on the Bryan Fischer show yesterday going on about how homosexuality is not innate. He mentioned two studies which were supposed to make his point on the clip I have below – one called Calhoun’s Rat Universe and another one conducted by Alan Bell, Martin Weinberg and Sue Hammersmith. Listen in: [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Psychologist Tim Rampey was on the Bryan Fischer show yesterday going on about how homosexuality is not innate. He mentioned two studies which were supposed to make his point on the clip I have below – one called <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Calhoun#1963-1983">Calhoun’s Rat Universe</a> and another one conducted by Alan Bell, Martin Weinberg and Sue Hammersmith.</p>
<p>Listen in:</p>
<p><iframe width="440" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/UN3AuFnj5hc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>Rampey described Calhoun’s Rat Universe as a possible social influence on sexual behavior. In this study, there were many breakdowns in procreation as well as other behavioral changes when the living space became overcrowded. This, of course, is a study which is only relevant to situational sexual behavior. Explaining why some people engage in sexual behavior under duress is not the same thing as explaining the development of same-sex attraction under more typical circumstances. And besides, as NARTH writers like to remind us, animals are not human.  </p>
<p>Then, Rampey invokes the 1981 report from Alan Bell, Martin Weinberg and Sue Hammersmith which found very little difference between the home life of gays and straights. Rampey said:</p>
<blockquote><p>If you actually take Alan Bell’s study, the differences are huge. The number of heterosexuals who said that they were disliked or hated by their fathers was less than half than those who said such among the homosexuals.</p></blockquote>
<p>It is really sad to see a person who criticizes <a href="http://www.amazon.com/America-Fooled-Antidepressants-Antipsychotics-Deceived/dp/0977307506/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top">drug companies for misusing research</a> turn around and misuse it himself. That is exactly what he has done here.</p>
<p>I have the book, <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Sexual-Preference-Its-Development-Women/dp/025316673X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&#038;qid=1310751971&#038;sr=8-1">Sexual Preference</a></em>, by Bell, Weinberg and Hammersmith which provides the questions used in the analysis. The authors asked gay and straight participants many questions about both parents. The closest question I could find to one asking participants if their fathers hated them was one asking if the participants hated their fathers. The authors described the response:</p>
<blockquote><p>A minority of the homosexual respondents said they had disliked or hated their fathers, but even fewer heterosexual respondents mentioned such feelings (WHM (white homosexual males): 29%, WHTM (white heterosexual males): 12%). (p. 54)</p></blockquote>
<p>The researchers asked many other related questions with similar results. Generally gay males described more strained relationships with their fathers than straights. However, what should we make of this?</p>
<p>If we are looking for a general factor from these data of why same-sex attraction occurs, we cannot assume a strained paternal relationship is the cause. First, let’s examine the implication Rampey makes that differences in ratings of paternal relation mean those differences cause the differences in sexual orientation. Rampey has made a living critiquing researchers for errors in design and interpretation, but he makes a rookie error by implying that correlation means causation.</p>
<p>There are other explanations for the differences observed in relationship assessment. As Bell et al point out, during their growing up years, gay males often appear more stereotypically feminine in interests and activity preferences. Fathers who do not know how to deal with this may pull away from their sons. The father &#8211; son issues, to the extent they are remembered correctly, may be a reaction to the development of same-sex interest and not the cause of it. And then relationships can really sour in adolescence when same-sex interest becomes more obvious. Consider these recollections from former clients:</p>
<blockquote><p>“I was a daddy’s boy until about 7<sup>th</sup> grade. We did everything together and I knew he loved me. When I got into music though, he didn’t really get it. We kind of drifted until I told him I was gay and now it is pretty strained.” And from a dad: “I never suspected a thing. We were very close but when he told me he liked boys instead of girls, something in me died, I think. We are not the same now.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Rampey then claims that the differences in Bell et al are huge. However, they are not huge, at least huge enough to explain sexual orientation. First, the absolute number of gays in Bell’s study providing answers portraying a strained relationship was infrequently over half the respondents. Just taking the question referred to by Rampey, note that 71% of gay males did not hate or dislike their fathers. On two-thirds of the questions about father, a majority of the gay males answered in the direction of a good relationship with their father. As a group, straight males described better relationships with their fathers, but rarely was the difference dramatic or indicative of large effects on adult sexual orientation.</p>
<p>Bell et al analyzed all of the differences and found that the only real effect of paternal relationship was if it contributed to childhood gender nonconformity. In other words, they concluded that a lack of paternal identification did not have much at all to do with homosexuality unless a boy also reported being disinterested in typical male activities and interests growing up. Bell et al said it like this:</p>
<blockquote><p>Unfavorable relationships with fathers do seem to be connected with gender nonconformity and early homosexual experiences; nonetheless, the connection to adult sexual orientation is not a strong one…From these findings, then, we conclude that the relationship a boy has with his father cannot be said to predict very much about the sexual orientation he will develop. (p. 62).</p></blockquote>
<p>Another problem with Rampey’s use of Bell’s data is that he did not report the additional analysis Bell conducted to separate therapy patients from non-therapy patients. If homosexuality in general is related to poor relationships with father, then this connection should be true in emotionally troubled clients as well as those gay males who do not report mental health concerns. In research, one must not generalize results to general, non-clinical populations from those seeking treatment. Understanding this, Bell’s team compared gay men who had been in therapy and gay men who had not sought treatment. For the non-therapy group, there was no relationship between detached-hostile fathers and later homosexuality; whereas for the group who had been in therapy, this variable explained more of the variance than for the entire group (8.4%). Fewer differences were noted for women.</p>
<p>In short, Rampey does in the domain of sexual orientation what he complains about when it comes to drug companies – uses research to paint a misleading picture.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.afa.net/Radio/show.aspx?id=2147490466&amp;tab=video&amp;video=2147509522" target="_blank">part two of the interview</a>, Rampey continues to distort things when it comes to harm of ex-gay therapy saying that all APA concern comes from the Shidlo and Schroeder study. He gets some details wrong and does rightly critique the bias involved in that study. However, he completely glosses over the other indications of harm, including the recent <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-08/us/rekers.sissy.boy.experiment_1_george-alan-rekers-miami-new-times-gay-scoutmasters?_s=PM:US" target="_blank">Kirk Murphy case</a>. This is a relevant observation because Rampey quotes a 1975 textbook citing many behavioral modification studies which prove sexual reorientation works without harm. <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-07/us/sissy.boy.experiment_1_kraig-experimental-therapy-feminine-traits?_s=PM:US" target="_blank">Kirk Murphy&#8217;s family</a> would dispute that as would I.</p>
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		<title>How much change is enough?</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/06/24/how-much-change-is-enough/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/06/24/how-much-change-is-enough/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jun 2011 12:51:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spousosexual]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[At risk of raising blood pressure and snark readings to risky levels, I want to say a word about orientation change. I am this morning working on a journal article about the survey of same-sex attracted, heterosexually married people I conducted with the help of Gary Welton between 2008-2010. We asked loads of questions about [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At risk of raising blood pressure and snark readings to risky levels, I want to say a word about orientation change. I am this morning working on a journal article about the survey of same-sex attracted, heterosexually married people I conducted with the help of Gary Welton between 2008-2010.</p>
<p>We asked loads of questions about attractions, fantasies, behaviors and sexual identity with lots of interesting results. One of the most striking results was the rarity of dramatic orientation change. We asked about opposite sex and same sex sexual attraction at 18, time of first marriage and currently on a scale of 0 to 100. only 4/245 men and 2/59 women rated themselves less than 10/100 at age 18 and then 90+ currently on the opposite sex attraction scale.  The numbers did not increase dramatically as I examined a more relaxed assessment of change (e.g., less than 30 at 18 and more than 70 now). Overall, the sample shifted more toward the gay side of the spectrum from ratings of self at 18 and currently, although religious affiliation tended to mute that effect some.</p>
<p>One of the strengths of the survey is that I was able to connect with the largely hidden group of men and women who are SSA and married via word of mouth. I also suveyed people from the Exodus member ministries and the Straight Spouse Network. The sample, while convenience, was drawn from a very wide range of sources.</p>
<p>The title of the post relates to the fact that the marital satisfaction for the SSA partner was pretty high. This makes me think that even a little bit of change in one aspect of sexuality (behavior, fantasies and/or attractions) seems to be enough for a large number of people to redefine themselves in ways that give themselves permission to seek opposite sex relationships.</p>
<p>Stay tuned&#8230;</p>
<p>PS &#8211; Two men went from completely straight at 18 to completely gay currently.</p>
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		<title>Is coming out always best?</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/06/20/is-coming-out-always-best/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/06/20/is-coming-out-always-best/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jun 2011 12:20:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Religion and sexuality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reparative therapy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual identity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual identity therapy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[coming out]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=9514</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am going to look for this article later today. Looks interesting and potentially relevant to the sexual identity therapy discussions generated by the New York Times Magazine last week. Released: 6/15/2011 12:25 PM EDT Embargo expired: 6/20/2011 1:00 AM EDT Source: University of Rochester Disclosing Sexual Orientation Makes People Even Happier Than Thought, But [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am going to look for <a href="http://www.newswise.com/articles/is-coming-out-always-a-good-thing" target="_blank">this article</a> later today. Looks interesting and potentially relevant to the sexual identity therapy discussions generated by the New York Times Magazine last week.</p>
<blockquote>
<div id="released"><strong>Released:</strong> 6/15/2011 12:25 PM EDT<br />
<strong>Embargo expired:</strong> 6/20/2011 1:00 AM EDT<br />
<strong>Source:</strong> <a href="http://www.newswise.com/institutions/view/1228/">University of Rochester</a></div>
<p><strong>Disclosing Sexual Orientation Makes People Even Happier Than Thought, But Mainly in Supportive Settings</strong></p>
<p>Newswise — Coming out as lesbian, gay, or bisexual increases emotional well-being even more than earlier research has indicated. But the psychological benefits of revealing one’s sexual identity &#8212; less anger, less depression, and higher self-esteem – are limited to supportive settings, shows a study published June 20 in <em>Social Psychology and Personality Science</em>.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Is the world about to end?</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/03/14/is-the-world-about-to-end/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2011/03/14/is-the-world-about-to-end/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Mar 2011 20:37:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earthquakes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[greg laurie]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=8795</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Preachers gonna preach. Greg Laurie, who is probably a really nice guy, told his congregation that the 2nd coming is coming sooner than later. He thinks so due to&#8230; &#8230;the dramatic escalation of global wars and terrorism, the push for unity or globalism, the change in world economics toward a cashless society, the unprecedented increase [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Preachers gonna preach.</p>
<p>Greg Laurie, who is probably a really nice guy, told his congregation that the 2nd coming is coming sooner than later. <a href="http://www.christianpost.com/news/calif-pastor-end-of-the-world-is-near-really-49402/" target="_blank">He thinks so due to&#8230;</a></p>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;the dramatic escalation of global wars and terrorism, the push for unity or globalism, the change in world economics toward a cashless society, the unprecedented increase of killer earthquakes, and false teaching permeating the church.</p></blockquote>
<p>I am not a historian but I bet there isn&#8217;t a dramatic escalation of wars. I suppose there could be a push for globalism but for sure, there are some countries who are going to hold out on the We Are the World remake. False teaching has been with us from the beginning; but what about those earthquakes?</p>
<p>The US Geological Survey must get that question a lot (Are there more earthquakes now?) because they have <a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/increase_in_earthquakes.php" target="_blank">a page about it here</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.</p>
<p>A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to <strong>locate</strong> each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.</p>
<p>According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 &#8211; 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.</p></blockquote>
<p>Vivid events can produce illusory correlations and in this case it appears that a perception of increase is based on better recording of earthquakes rather than an increase in the actual frequency.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html" target="_blank">Besides NASA says we are all safe&#8230;</a></p>
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		<title>SPLC myth #4: Homosexuals don’t live nearly as long as heterosexuals</title>
		<link>http://wthrockmorton.com/2010/12/16/splc-myth-4-homosexuals-don%e2%80%99t-live-nearly-as-long-as-heterosexuals/</link>
		<comments>http://wthrockmorton.com/2010/12/16/splc-myth-4-homosexuals-don%e2%80%99t-live-nearly-as-long-as-heterosexuals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Dec 2010 19:01:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Warren</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Paul Cameron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Professional issues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Religion and sexuality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sexual orientation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[afa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryan Fischer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debating hating]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[frc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[homosexuality]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wthrockmorton.com/?p=8152</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As anticipated, the groups identified by the Southern Poverty Law Center as &#8220;hate groups&#8221; have reacted with defensive distraction. Instead of responding directly to the charges made by the SPLC, they have organized a significant effort to change the subject. Called Start Debating/Stop Hating, the website   consists of endorsements from some prominent conservative activists, politicians and ministers. The website also [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2010/11/30/splchatelist/" target="_blank">As anticipated</a>, the groups identified by the Southern Poverty Law Center as &#8220;hate groups&#8221; have reacted with defensive distraction. Instead of responding directly to the charges made by the SPLC, they have organized a significant effort to change the subject. Called <a href="http://www.startdebatingstophating.com/" target="_blank">Start Debating/Stop Hating</a>, the website   consists of endorsements from some prominent conservative activists, politicians and ministers. The website also asks visitors to sign a petition which reads:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;We, the undersigned, stand in solidarity with Family Research Council, American Family Association, Concerned Women of America, National Organization for Marriage, Liberty Counsel and other pro-family organizations that are working to protect and promote natural marriage and family. We support the vigorous but responsible exercise of the First Amendment rights of free speech and religious liberty that are the birthright of all Americans.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>That sounds fine until you realize that the <a href="http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2010/winter/the-hard-liners" target="_blank">SPLC did not place groups </a>on the list because they favored &#8220;natural marriage and family.&#8221; There are other unlisted organizations (e.g., Focus on the Family, Alliance Defense Fund) which clearly and publicly oppose gay marriage.  The SPLC <a href="http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2010/winter/10-myths" target="_blank">clearly stated reasons</a> why the new groups, including the FRC and the AFA were listed. The issue is a systematic effort to vilify gays, such as this gem from <a href="http://www.afa.net/Blogs/BlogPost.aspx?id=2147494882" target="_blank">American Family Association&#8217;s Bryan Fischer</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Homosexuality gave us Adolph Hitler, and homosexuals in the military gave us the Brown Shirts, the Nazi war machine and six million dead Jews. Gays in the military is an experiment that has been tried and found disastrously and tragically wanting. Maybe it&#8217;s time for Congress to learn a lesson from history.</p></blockquote>
<p>That is SPLC myth #5. For this post, I am going to look at myth #4 which focuses on the claim that gays don&#8217;t live as long as straights. I have addressed this <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2008/11/13/new-danish-study-reviews-mortality-among-married-gays/" target="_blank">before extensively</a> and so I am only going to point out again that the groups and their defenders are changing the subject instead of addressing actual problems in the information they present to their constituents.</p>
<p>A recent case in point is a column by Bryan Fischer of the AFA where he did exactly what the SPLC complained about in myth #4. <a href="http://www.renewamerica.com/columns/fischer/101209" target="_blank">Watch</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>While drugs have been found to mitigate the damage done by HIV, there is no cure. Once someone contracts it, he has it for life, a life often tragically shortened by between eight and 20 years, according to the International Journal of Epidemiology.</p>
<p>Smoking will cut six to seven years from the lifespan of the smoker, meaning a cigarette habit is less dangerous to human health and longevity than gay sex.</p></blockquote>
<p>Given the reference, I assume he is referring to the <a href="http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/26/3/657.abstract?ijkey=a10fe640c53eb96f8c9022be23abb8c143ea59db&amp;keytype2=tf_ipsecsha" target="_blank">1997 study by Hogg et al</a> in the International Journal of Epidemiology which found the following:</p>
<blockquote><p>In a major Canadian centre, life expectancy at age 20 years for gay and bisexual men is 8 to 20 years less than for all men.</p></blockquote>
<p>Does Mr. Fischer get-off-the-hate-list-free card because he cited a peer reviewed journal? Those who really want to support these groups might be inclined to stop right there and cease their investigation of the question. Indeed, that is what the American College of Pediatricians do on their <a href="http://factsaboutyouth.com/posts/life-span/" target="_blank">Facts About Youth website</a>. They say:</p>
<blockquote><p>The only epidemiological study to date on the life span of gay men concluded that gay and bisexual men lose up to 20 years of life expectancy.</p></blockquote>
<p>I have pointed out to the people who put that website together that Hogg et al is not the &#8220;only epidemiological study to date on the life span of gay men&#8221; but they have not changed their website. In any case, the point is that people who count on these organizations for accurate information would not get it by trusting them and reading their claims.</p>
<p>The Hogg et al study was conducted using data from 1987 &#8211; 1992 when AIDS claimed many lives. In 2001, Hogg et al countered the incorrect use of their study &#8211; the same study that Bryan Fischer and ACPED cites as current information &#8211; by noting that life expectancy had improved significantly, saying:</p>
<blockquote><p>In contrast, if we were to repeat this analysis today the life expectancy of gay and bisexual men would be greatly improved. Deaths from HIV infection have declined dramatically in this population since 1996. As we have previously reported there has been a threefold decrease in mortality in Vancouver as well as in other parts of British Columbia.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is not reported on the ACPED site nor is it referred to by Bryan Fischer. Why not? If these groups were interested in presenting accurate information in debating and not hating, then why not present the whole picture?</p>
<p>However, there is more. A <a href="http://wthrockmorton.com/2008/11/13/new-danish-study-reviews-mortality-among-married-gays/" target="_blank">more recent 2008 study</a>by Danish epidemiologist Morten Frisch and statistician Henrik Brønnum-Hansen found that the trajectory of gay mortality is improving there to the point where, according to these researchers,</p>
<blockquote><p>Despite recent marked reduction in mortality among gay men, Danish men and women in same-sex marriages still have mortality rates that exceed those of the general population. The excess mortality is restricted to the first few years after a marriage, presumably reflecting preexisting illness at the time of marriage. Although further study is needed, the claims of drastically increased overall mortality in gay men and lesbians appear unjustified.</p></blockquote>
<p>The authors found that mortality improved dramatically with the introduction of antiretroviral treatments and while the mortality rates were still not as favorable for gays and lesbians, they were not compatible with the claims of a 20 year difference. Indeed, the Danish researchers found that the mortality picture of married GLB people is improving over time. </p>
<p>More research needs to be done and these studies need replication but the accurate picture is that life span differences are not dramatic and are not comparable to those produced by smoking. If anything, the mortality picture is improving substantially, not declining. If this new effort from the FRC is supposed to be about debate and dialogue then, please discuss this.</p>
<p>Here is a question:</p>
<p>Why haven&#8217;t the groups (or their <a href="http://factsaboutyouth.com/posts/life-span/" target="_blank">supporters</a>) singled out by the SPLC disclosed the update provided by Hogg et al in 2001 or the study by Frisch and Brønnum-Hansen in 2008?</p>
<p>Regarding mortality, the truth is more in line with what Hogg et al noted in their <a href="http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/30/6/1499" target="_blank">2001 update</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>It is essential to note that the life expectancy of any population is a descriptive and not a prescriptive mesaure. Death is a product of the way a person lives and what physical and environmental hazards he or she faces everyday. It cannot be attributed solely to their sexual orientation or any other ethnic or social factor. If estimates of an individual gay and bisexual man’s risk of death is truly needed for legal or other purposes, then people making these estimates should use the same actuarial tables that are used for all other males in that population. Gay and bisexual men are included in the construction of official population-based tables and therefore these tables for all males are the appropriate ones to be used.</p></blockquote>
<p>In addition to avoiding information inconsistent with their premise, the groups identified by the SPLC often use the information they do disclose in an incorrect manner.  If these groups want to debate, then I suggest they use all of the information available and they use it in accord with accepted scientific standards. For instance, generalizing from Hogg et al in 1997 to all gay people everywhere in 2010 is improper and can easily lead to charges of purposeful negative stereotyping. Instead of changing the subject, I would like to see these groups change the way they defend their views.</p>
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